Term ID: T1739

Forecasting Error

/forecasting-error/
Systematic mistakes in predicting future events, emotions, or outcomes, including biases like overconfidence, impact bias, and the planning fallacy that affect decision-making.
Example: Underestimating how long projects will take (planning fallacy) or overestimating how happy winning the lottery will make you and how long the happiness will last.

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Reference: Kahneman & Lovallo (1993)